Record electric van sales still leave a mandate gap that doubles by 2028

Electric van registrations rose 58.0% in October to 3,369, the best October on record and the largest percentage gain of any month this year. They took 12.9% of the light commercial market, against the 24% share the ZEV mandate requires for 2026. The industry's own forecast has the distance between the two widening for another two years.

The best October the van market has had

The SMMT's October release, published this morning, puts the light commercial vehicle market at 25,510 registrations, 11.4% ahead of October 2025 and the seventh consecutive month of growth. The year to date is 276,885, up 4.8%.

Diesel still does most of the work. Diesel vans took 20,735 registrations in the month, 79.5% of the total. Electric took 3,369, up from 2,132 a year earlier. The remaining 1,994 were classed as other fuels.

The electric figure is a record for October. The year-to-date electric total is 30,728, or 11.0% of the market, against 24% required this year.

The pickup side of the same release went the other way, with registrations down 17.7% to 1,764 and 52.9% lower across the year (our report on that).

The target climbs faster than the market

Nothing in the October numbers is a surprise to the SMMT, which has spent the year arguing that the mandate's early targets were set when the market looked different. What is new is the forecast attached to today's release.

The SMMT expects the overall LCV market to grow 4.2% to 329,000 units this year, with electric vans up to 3.5 tonnes taking 10.4%. That is 13.6 percentage points short of the 24% target. It then expects 14.9% in 2027 and 18.8% in 2028, against targets of 34% and 46%. The gap goes from 13.6 points to 19.1 and then 27.2, so it exactly doubles over two years while the market itself grows.

Put in vehicles, 10.4% of 329,000 is about 34,200 electric vans. A 24% share would need about 79,000. The shortfall is roughly 44,700 vehicles, and that is before the 2027 and 2028 targets arrive.

A record built on a small base

Percentages flatter a small number. October 2025 produced 2,132 electric vans, so this October's 3,369 is 1,237 more. In a market of 26,098 registrations, that is the difference between 9.2% and 12.9%.

The monthly series also swings with the plate change. September, the bigger of the two plate-change months, produced 4,832 electric vans, up 13.4% and a 9.6% share (SMMT, 5 October). October's total was lower in absolute terms even as its percentage rise was far larger, because the comparison base changed.

The trend across the year is still upward. Electric van registrations are 26.7% higher in the first ten months than in the same period of 2025, at 30,728 against 24,250. The share has moved from 9.1% to 11.0%. The target has not moved at all.

Who pays for the difference

The mandate is a trading scheme, not a hard floor on every manufacturer's sales. Manufacturers can buy credits, borrow from later years and, since the 2025 scheme year, transfer surplus car credits to cover a van shortfall (our guide to the flexibilities). That is a large part of how a market at 9.5% electric vans complied with a 16% target in 2025.

Compliance does not make the vans cheaper to build. The SMMT says manufacturers "have been forced to provide heavy discounts to avoid even more punitive ZEV Mandate compliance costs", and its chief executive, Mike Hawes, is blunt about where demand sits.

"While electric van uptake is accelerating rapidly, demand remains far behind the optimistic and unrealistic expectations of the mandate," he said.

Hawes added that the government's review "must provide clear and meaningful trajectory change before the year ends, not marginal tinkering, to avoid damaging the market, and the businesses and economic growth which depend on this sector".

The depot is the bottleneck

Range and payload matter less to a van buyer than the cost of the depot. The SMMT's list of barriers is short: purchase price, grid delays and a shortage of charging built for vans. Its release says the rollout of LCV-suitable public charging "needs to grow rapidly", and that lengthy waits for depot grid connections deserve prioritisation under plans for GB Grid.

The money exists. The Depot Charging Scheme covers up to 70% of charge point and civil costs, up to £1m per applicant, and the plug-in van grant takes up to £5,000 off an electric van.

The second round of depot funding, £38m for projects starting in April 2027, was due to open on 28 October. It had not opened when we reported on it this week, and the Department for Transport would say only that an update was coming in due course (our report).

What happens next

The government's review of the ZEV mandate ran from 14 August to 23 October (GOV.UK consultation). It asked whether the annual targets remain appropriate, and the options under consideration include cutting the 2030 van target from 70% to 40% and the 2030 car target from 80% to as low as 50%. Ministers committed in the Budget to publish the response by the end of the year (EV Fleet World, 3 November). Until the law changes, the 2026 van target of 24% stands, along with the 2027 and 2028 steps that the SMMT's forecast says the market will miss by a wider margin each year.

For an operator, the decision does not have to wait for the review. The grant rates and the depot round decide whether a van is affordable now. The mandate decides what manufacturers will be pushing when the next one is due.

Sources

SMMT, "Best ever October for new electric vans yet still just half mandated target", 5 November 2026. smmt.co.uk
SMMT, "September's record electric van uptake still less than half mandated", 5 October 2026. smmt.co.uk
GOV.UK, "Zero emission vehicle mandate review", 14 August 2026. gov.uk
GOV.UK, "£1 billion to cut costs for businesses, drive growth and clean up UK roads", 25 March 2026. gov.uk
EV Fleet World, "Fleet leasing and logistics sectors call for realistic policy as ZEV mandate responses filed", 3 November 2026. evfleetworld.co.uk
Fleet News, "Double-digit increase for new LCV market with electric vans up 58%", 5 November 2026. fleetnews.co.uk