Car production jumped 38.6% in September, and last year's cyberattack explains most of it

UK factories built 70,831 cars in September, 38.6% more than in the same month last year, according to figures published today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. Including commercial vehicles, output rose 36.3% to 74,031 units, the strongest annual growth recorded since August 2022.

The comparison is doing most of the work. Last September, Jaguar Land Rover, Britain's biggest automotive employer, was shut down by a cyber incident, which left an unusually weak base for this year's numbers. The SMMT says so plainly, and its chief executive Mike Hawes opened his comment on the figures by making the same point: "September's rebound is welcome, but comparison with last year's disruption masks the pressures on UK manufacturing."

The numbers underneath the headline

Electrified models, meaning battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid cars, accounted for 42.3% of cars built in the month, with their output up 22.5% and 70.1% of car exports electrified. Exports took 76.7% of car output, which is the structural fact about the UK industry that no single month changes.

The destination split shows where the growth came from. The European Union remained the largest market with a 57.5% share and volumes up 12.7%. Shipments to the United States rose 234.8% to a 16.8% share, and to China 357.7% to 4.4%, both from low bases. A percentage that large on a small base says more about last year's disruption to specific trade routes than about a new export boom.

The export mix is also where the industry's political argument lives. More than three quarters of the cars built here are sold abroad, and more than half go to the European Union, so any change to the terms of that trade lands directly on UK factory volumes. The SMMT's own note on the figures makes the point that the United States and China grew quickly while the EU remained the market that matters, and it is that share which the "Made in EU" proposals put at risk.

Commercial vehicles are the weaker half of the story. Exports rose 1.6%, domestic output fell 2.6%, and overall CV production slipped 0.9%. Year to date, CV output is down 46.7% after structural changes in the sector, which is a decline of a different order to anything in the car figures.

Year to date, UK factories have built 564,537 cars and commercial vehicles, 3.0% fewer than in the same period of 2025.

The forecast has been cut

The independent outlook published with the figures expects 731,000 light vehicles this year, down 2.3% on 2025 and below the mid-year view, which the SMMT attributes to model changeovers. Output is forecast to recover to 752,000 in 2027 as new models, mostly electric, enter production.

A forecast cut in the same release as a 38.6% monthly rise is the clearest signal of how the year has gone. The monthly comparison is about a shutdown that will not repeat; the annual forecast is about the underlying volume of cars the factories have orders for. The SMMT attributes the reduction to ongoing model changeovers, which is the point in a plant's life when the old car has stopped selling and the new one has not started, and it is why the recovery is placed in 2027 rather than this year.

Three threats, two of them from Europe

The SMMT uses the release to set out what it sees as the risks to that recovery, and two of the three come from the UK's relationship with the European Union.

The first is the European Commission's "Made in EU" proposals, which as drafted would effectively exclude UK-built vehicles from the EU market, the destination for more than half of UK car exports. We covered that proposal when it landed in our piece on the Made in EU rules.

The second is tougher rules of origin under the Trade Cooperation Agreement from 2027, which the SMMT says risks a shared annual tariff bill of £1.4 billion on electric vehicle trade in both directions. The third is domestic: the ZEV mandate, which the industry argues is running ahead of demand and absorbing money that would otherwise go into factories and models.

The scale of what is at stake is set out in the same release. Manufacturers have committed at least £14.3 billion to UK electric vehicle plants and models since 2020, and 188,000 jobs and £18 billion of annual economic contribution depend directly on the sector.

What the industry is asking for

Hawes used the release to call for "an urgent conclusion to the ZEV mandate review", arguing that mandate targets are running ahead of demand and draining resources required for British factories and jobs. The review consultation closed on 23 October, and the decision on the 2030 target has since been handed to the First Secretary of State after the prime minister stepped back from it.

Whether a lower 2030 target would change production volumes in the UK is the open question. The models coming in 2027 are mostly electric, which means the investment has already been made in the product, and the argument is about how quickly the market absorbs them. We set out the wider manufacturing picture in our piece on what is at stake in UK car making, and the JLR recovery in our look at its quarter.

Sources

• SMMT: Vehicle production rises but regulatory and competitive pressures threaten recovery (29 October 2026)
• Motor Trader: UK vehicle production sees strongest growth since August 2022 (29 October 2026)
• Car Dealer Magazine: UK car production surges 38.6% but SMMT warns EV targets are putting jobs at risk (29 October 2026)