Europe has cut its 2035 car target to 87.5%, and Britain's decision is still open

The European Parliament's environment committee voted on Wednesday to cut the EU's 2035 carbon target for new cars from 100% to 87.5%. For vans the target would fall to 80%, and the 2030 van target from 50% to 35%. The vote was 48 to 30, with two abstentions (Eurometal, 6 November). It is not law, with a plenary vote expected in December, but it is the furthest any European institution has gone in loosening the settlement it reached in 2023.

Britain is at a different stage of the same argument. The government's review of the ZEV mandate closed to responses on 23 October and the decision is still to come (GOV.UK). The two rules are not the same instrument, and a vote in Brussels does not automatically move the target in London.

What the committee voted for

The environment, climate and food safety committee, known as ENVI, adopted its position on the Commission's revision of the CO2 standards for cars and vans. The Commission had proposed a 90% cut in average new-car CO2 by 2035, against the 100% now in law. The committee went further, to 87.5% for cars and 80% for vans (Auto Express, 6 November).

For vans it also wants the 2030 target cut to 35%, against 50% in the current rules and 40% in the Commission's text (Eurometal, 6 November). Manufacturers would be able to offset part of the remaining emissions with credits for low-carbon steel made in the EU, and the text treats some renewable fuels as zero emission at the tailpipe. Small electric cars under 4.3 metres would count as 1.3 vehicles towards a manufacturer's fleet, a super credit that gives city cars more weight than their sales alone (Auto Express, 6 November).

The committee's rapporteur, Massimiliano Salini, called the vote "a turning point for the European automotive industry" and said it would keep combustion cars on sale without compensation obligations, protecting "technological freedom" (Auto Express, 6 November). The 100% target stays in law until the revision is agreed, and the Parliament's position still has to survive a plenary vote and negotiation with member states.

Two rules, two decisions

Britain's mandate does not regulate average CO2. It requires a rising share of each manufacturer's new car registrations to be zero emission, with allowances that can be banked, borrowed or traded. The car targets run from 33% this year to 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029, 80% in 2030 and 100% in 2035 (GOV.UK). Vans follow a lower path, from 24% this year to 70% in 2030.

The review that closed in October asked about that trajectory, the flexibilities that soften it, and alternative policy approaches. It also asks how the 2030 phase-out of new cars that rely solely on internal combustion engines should be defined (GOV.UK). The consultation document states that the commitment to phasing out new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, and to all new cars and vans being zero emission by 2035, is "unwavering" (GOV.UK consultation document, August 2026).

Unwavering does not mean unchanged. The Budget confirmed that any changes from the review would take effect from the start of the 2027 compliance period (SMMT, 6 November), which puts the decision in the next few weeks rather than at the end of the decade. Reports before the consultation closed pointed to a 2030 target of 60%, with manufacturers asking for 50% (our report, 19 October). The decision moved to Louise Haigh in late October (our report, 25 October).

The gap Britain is trying to close

In October, 152,730 new cars were registered, up 5.4% on a year earlier, and 48,858 of them were battery electric, a 32.0% share against petrol's 37.2% (SMMT registration data). For the year to date, electric cars hold 26.6% of the market on 503,805 registrations, against the 33% target for 2026 (SMMT).

The SMMT's latest outlook expects 27.2% for the full year, 32% in 2027 and 37.5% in 2028, against targets of 38% and 52% in those two years (SMMT, 6 November). The trade body puts manufacturer investment in UK electric vehicle production at £14.3 billion since 2020, with more than 180 electric models on sale and an average range above 300 miles. It also notes that the UK's 26.6% year-to-date share sits below Germany's 28.2% and France's 32.5%, two markets without a mandate but with generous purchase incentives.

What the industry wants

Mike Hawes, the SMMT's chief executive, has argued that the gap cannot be closed with discounts alone. "Higher targets may force supply, but they do not create demand," he said (SMMT, 5 November). The trade body wants the review to deliver "substantive reform" and warns that the shortfall widens to 14.5 percentage points by 2028, just as the EV-specific vehicle excise duty begins in April 2028 (SMMT, 6 November, and our guide to the EV road tax).

Not everyone agrees. Melanie Lane, chief executive of the charging company Pod, said the mandate is working. "Sales are now ahead of the real ZEV sales target, showing that the mandate is working as intended and doesn't need adjusting," she said (Independent, 7 November). She added that another shifting of the regulatory goalposts was the last thing the market needed.

What it means for a buyer

Nothing changes this month. The cars on sale, the Electric Car Grant and the 2027 target are as they were, and the EU vote does not alter the rules a UK buyer shops under. The decision that matters is whether the 2027 target stays at 38% or moves closer to the 32% the SMMT expects the market to deliver.

If the target is cut, manufacturers have less reason to chase volume with discounts in the first quarter, and the deals that have pulled electric prices down this year may ease. If it holds, the pressure that produced a 32.0% electric share in October continues into 2027. A slower European trajectory also makes it more likely that plug-in hybrids and range-extenders developed for a longer combustion life reach UK showrooms, which widens the choice for buyers who are not ready to go fully electric.

The used market has a stake too. A slower mandate supports the values of older petrol and diesel cars, while a faster one pushes them down sooner. The trade has already been repricing: BCA's October average fell 5% year on year to £7,244 (our report).

That is the choice the review now carries. The EU has shown which way its committee wants to go. Britain has not yet said which way it will.