Ministers are set to cut the 2030 electric car target to about 60% this week

The 2030 electric car target is expected to fall this week, from 80% of new car sales to about 60%, at a meeting in Downing Street on Wednesday. Louise Haigh, the first secretary of state, will finalise the decision, according to the Guardian, which reports that government sources expect a cut of about a quarter and an extension of the mandate's flexibilities to 2034.

The government insists nothing has been settled. A spokesperson said it remains "united in its commitment to the ZEV mandate" and committed to the phase-out of new cars that rely solely on petrol and diesel engines by 2030. The decision would land as Andy Burnham prepares to travel to his first Cop summit as prime minister, where he and the foreign secretary, Ed Miliband, are due to make the case for electrification.

The choice in front of ministers

The consultation on the mandate ran from 14 August to 23 October and set out five options: leave the mandate unchanged, keep the 80% target but extend the flexibilities by four years, cut the 2030 target to 70%, cut it to 60%, or cut it to 50% (GOV.UK). A cut from 80% to 60% is 20 percentage points, or a quarter of the current target.

The cabinet has not been unanimous. Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, argued for the target to fall as far as 50%, while Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, is believed to favour about 60%, according to the Guardian. Government insiders expect Haigh to sign off on about 60%. She has told colleagues that she does not want them to come back later asking for a further reduction.

What is not being decided is the 2035 end point. New cars and vans sold from that year must be zero emission, and the 2030 phase-out of models that rely solely on petrol or diesel stays, with hybrids allowed to remain on sale until 2035.

The gap the target is meant to close

In October, 152,730 new cars were registered and 48,858 of them were battery electric, a 32.0% share (SMMT, 5 November). For the year to date the share is 26.6% on 503,805 cars, against a target of 33% for 2026. The SMMT expects 27.2% for the full year, 32% in 2027 against a 38% target, and 37.5% in 2028 against 52% (SMMT, 5 November).

The penalty for missing the target is £12,000 per non-compliant car, down from £15,000 in 2024, with vans at £15,000 (GOV.UK). The car trajectory runs from 33% this year to 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029 and 80% in 2030, and vans follow a lower path from 24% this year to 70% in 2030.

The headline targets are not the whole requirement. Manufacturers can bank over-compliance for up to three years, trade allowances with other makers and borrow against future allocations, subject to annual caps. Borrowed allowances must be repaid by 2030 with 3.5% annual compound interest. That is why a change to the headline number can matter less on a forecourt than it looks in a consultation document.

Four more years of flexibility

The Guardian reports that the flexibilities would be extended to 2034, four years beyond the point at which borrowed allowances must currently be repaid. The effect is to give manufacturers a longer runway to make up a shortfall, spreading the cost of compliance across more years.

For a government trying to hold the 2035 end point while easing the path, the combination is the compromise on the table: a lower 2030 number, a longer period of flexibility, and no change to the final deadline.

A £1.7bn warning from the charging industry

The charging industry has made its case against a cut. Shane Brennan, chief executive of the trade association ChargeUK, said: "Weakening the mandate puts £1.7bn of charging infrastructure at risk and all the associated jobs and supply chain spending that goes with it."

He added that "charging investors' confidence will be rocked by a third change in three years" and that the government should not be complacent about "the long-term implications of being seen to cave to the short-term interest of global car importers". The argument matters because public charging is built against expected vehicle volumes, and the Competition and Markets Authority's subsidy unit has already questioned the case for the government's £190m motorway charging scheme (our report).

What it means for a buyer

Nothing changes this month. The cars on sale, the Electric Car Grant and the 2027 target of 38% are as they were, and the decision reported this weekend concerns the 2030 number and the flexibility rules.

If the target falls to about 60%, manufacturers have less reason to chase volume with discounts to hit the 2027 and 2028 rungs, and the cheap finance and deposit contributions that have pulled electric prices down this year may ease. If the target holds at 80%, that pressure continues into 2027. A longer period of flexibility points the same way as a lower target, because it lets a maker spread the cost of a slow year across the rest of the decade.

More hybrids and range-extenders are the other likely consequence. A target that stays closer to today's market share gives manufacturers more room to sell cars with a combustion engine alongside a battery, which widens choice for buyers who are not ready to go fully electric. The used market has a stake too. A slower mandate supports the values of older petrol and diesel cars, while a faster one pushes them down sooner, and the trade has already been repricing: BCA's October average fell 5% year on year to £7,244 (our report).

The tax picture does not change with this decision. The EV-specific vehicle excise duty begins in April 2028, and the expensive car supplement applies from £50,000 for electric cars rather than £40,000 (our guide to EV road tax).

The politics of the week

The decision is being watched closely by Labour MPs who see the mandate as the government's biggest remaining climate lever. Lizzi Collinge, the MP for Morecambe and Lunesdale, said: "The upcoming decision on the ZEV mandate will have a huge climate impact, possibly the biggest one that's on the PM's desk." She added that it would also "set the direction for tackling the cost of living and helping get our energy prices down over the coming decade".

Catherine Fookes, the MP for Monmouthshire, said: "We need the ZEV mandate to stay, and Rosebank to be rejected." Paul McNamee, director of the Labour Climate and Environment Forum, said a significant weakening "will be seen as a rowing back on climate leadership" and called for assurances that the mandate would not be weakened again, with the 2035 target left in place.

The government's own position is that the consultation will not change the 2030 phase-out or the 2035 end point. Its spokesperson said the review would "ensure we are taking a pragmatic and balanced approach to the ZEV transition". The Guardian reports that the mandate is expected to deliver greater emissions savings than any other single policy, accounting for nearly 14% of the reductions the UK has pledged between 2028 and 2032.

Burnham stepped aside from the decision in October over his wife's links to the charging industry, handing it to Haigh (our report). The reports before the consultation closed pointed to a 60% target and a 50% ask from manufacturers (our report). This week's meeting would turn that reporting into a number, and the number would answer the question left open when the European Parliament's environment committee voted to weaken the EU's own 2035 target (our report).